Last week, India paused the 65-year-old Indus Water Treaty following a terrorist attack in Pahargam that resulted in 26 deaths. The treaty governs the distribution of water from six rivers in the Indus River Basin between India and Pakistan. This decision has sparked discussions on how India might strategically use the unallocated water under the treaty, while also highlighting vulnerabilities in the Indus River basin due to climate change-related glacial losses.
Leading glaciologist Anil V. Kulkarni emphasized the critical impacts of climate change on rivers in the region. He noted that while the treaty allocates 20% of river water to India, actual measurements show only about 5% is available from the Higashikawa basin, with the Nishikawa basin storing 95%. As temperatures rise, glaciers are retreating, particularly in lower altitudes, leading to a negative mass balance.
Recent modeling studies indicate that while glacial meltwater may initially increase water availability until mid-century, this will change drastically, with a significant reduction in glacial water contributing to rivers by the end of the century. In the Eastern River Basin, melting is expected to decline, while the Western River Basin may temporarily benefit from runoff, but eventually, it will also face shortages.
Kulkarni calls for a reevaluation of the treaty, considering factors like increased liquid precipitation and changes in runoff that weren’t accounted for when the treaty was established. The rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are fundamentally affecting ecosystems and water availability.
As snow melts earlier in the year, it alters seasonal water availability, impacting soil moisture and forest fire seasons, showing how climate change is reshaping the landscape. Kulkarni advocates for adapting the treaty to reflect these new realities for better management of water resources in the region.
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