Colorado State University’s (CSU) hurricane forecasting team projects an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes—26% above the historical average. This forecast is based on statistical models from the last 40 years and current ocean temperature patterns that indicate warmer sea surface temperatures in key hurricane development areas.
The team noted two main factors for the heightened activity: the likelihood of neutral or weak La Niña conditions during the season, which tend to favor more hurricanes, and significantly warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. Historically, major hurricanes are more common during La Niña years compared to El Niño years.
CSU’s forecast emphasizes the importance of preparation, reminding coastal residents that conditions can vary significantly. While the April forecasts generally face challenges due to rapid changes in oceanic conditions, the team highlighted their success in previous predictions, such as for the 2024 season.
Upcoming forecasts from other organizations, such as NOAA and Tropical Storm Risk, are also anticipated, with the next CSU update expected by June 11, 2025. Past analog years, which showed similar pre-season conditions, exhibit a pattern of above-average storm activity, although individual hurricane seasons can vary widely.
Source link
