Scientists are issuing warnings about the accelerating effects of climate change, indicating that the cooling influence of La Niña may not adequately counterbalance rising temperatures in the near future. As India faces unusually high temperatures, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an extreme summer with prolonged heat waves, following its warmest February since 1901 and a notably dry winter. This situation highlights concerns about the climate crisis, with human-induced changes leading to what is being called a “new normal” characterized by warmer winters and shorter springs.
Experts stress the importance of annual weather patterns in shaping seasonal climates. For instance, the IMD noted this year’s unusually dry winter conditions, with rainfall playing a crucial role in naturally cooling temperatures. Changes in jet stream patterns, which influence weather by shifting, have been linked to fluctuations in expected temperature anomalies during winter months.
The periodic El Niño and La Niña phases, influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are also vital in shaping temperature trends. El Niño typically brings warmer conditions in spring, while La Niña is associated with cooler days. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently indicated that a “weak” La Niña observed in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived.
Data from Copernicus Climate Change Services show that global temperatures between March 2024 and February 2025 substantially exceeded the averages from 1990-2020 and pre-industrial levels. Experts noted that while some cold waters were present in the tropical Pacific, warmer anomalies in significant areas might be contributing to increased temperatures.
Research suggests that future El Niño events will become more frequent and intense, worsening extreme weather globally. India’s summer of 2024 recorded a staggering 536 days of heatwaves—the most in 14 years. Notably, the northwest region reported its warmest June since 1901. Experts conclude that due to climate change, El Niño is expected to exacerbate challenges, while La Niña may not provide significant relief, which raises concerns about the likelihood of severe heatwaves in the coming months.
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