A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has recently seen a slight increase in the risk of impact with Earth, currently estimated at 2% for the year 2032. This is still considered a low probability, with a 98% chance of the asteroid safely passing by. Astronomers are working to better understand its trajectory, which could lead to fluctuations in the likelihood of impact. The asteroid, discovered by a Chilean telescope, is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in size. NASA and the European Space Agency will conduct further observations to obtain more accurate data on the asteroid’s path and dimensions.
Experts indicate that there is no immediate cause for concern. NASA’s Paul Chodas emphasized that the probability of impact could eventually drop to zero as more data becomes available. If the asteroid were to impact Earth, the consequences would vary depending on its size; a smaller asteroid might cause local damage similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, while a larger one could have more severe effects.
NASA has experience in planetary defense, having previously altered the course of an asteroid in a test mission in 2022. Overall, researchers are confident that ongoing observations will clarify the asteroid’s potential threat level.
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