The article discusses the looming crises in the Greater Horn of Africa, driven by the intensifying El Niño phenomenon and the ongoing war in Iran. These factors, along with existing internal conflicts and agricultural issues, are expected to coalesce into a multi-crisis scenario by late 2026 and into 2027.
Key points include:
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Climate Impact: Fall 2025 rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa was below normal, with further drought anticipated, affecting crop production and livestock. The current Super El Niño could lead to severe flooding and displacement.
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Health Concerns: Unpredictable Ebola virus variants are emerging in Congo and Uganda, with potential risks if the virus spreads to Sudan, complicating the humanitarian response.
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Ongoing Conflicts: Except for Kenya, all countries in the region suffer from violent conflicts, complicating the response to climate and health shocks. Analysts warn of escalating violence in Ethiopia and South Sudan, contributing to hunger and famine.
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Economic Factors: The war in Iran has increased food prices and led to fertilizer shortages, further exacerbating food insecurity in the Horn of Africa. Local food production is expected to decline as a result.
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Humanitarian Challenges: The region’s preparedness is weakened due to significant cuts in international aid and the dismantling of humanitarian infrastructure. Local communities are stepping up to address crises, but lack sufficient support.
- Response Efforts: Local mutual aid initiatives are crucial, but need more funding and policy support. The international community often hesitates to hold warring parties accountable for using hunger as a weapon of war.
The intersection of these crises creates a "perfect storm," endangering food access and civilian protection, with projections of mass death and displacement without urgent intervention.
