A recent study from the University of Sydney warns that without equitable housing policies and emission reduction efforts, global warming may exacerbate housing costs, spike rents, and lead to a fourfold increase in homelessness over the next decade. The research, based on 20 years of data, analyzed Australia’s housing market’s response to various climate scenarios and found significant impacts on affordability, particularly affecting vulnerable populations in a high-emissions future.
Under this scenario, rising housing prices and rents relative to incomes could drastically increase homelessness by 2036. Conversely, a low-emissions future aligns with the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to below 2°C. Australia has committed to reducing emissions significantly by 2030, 2035, and achieving ‘net zero’ by 2050.
Associate Professor Nader Naderpajou emphasized that climate change has disproportionately affected low-income renters and the homeless, arguing that climate considerations should play a central role in housing policy discussions. He noted the need for comprehensive policies that support the most vulnerable.
Lead author Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh stated that the existing housing market pressures could worsen social inequality without fairer policies. Economist Nikki Hatley from the Climate Council echoed these sentiments, stressing the importance of integrating climate change into housing considerations and the need for resilient housing against extreme weather. The federal government’s National Climate Risk Assessment revealed that 10% of homes will be in very high-risk areas by 2030, highlighting ongoing inequalities intensified by climate change.
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