Europe’s aviation industry aims to double passenger numbers by 2050, but new research from T&E (Transport and Environment) warns that this growth could deplete its carbon budget as early as 2026. Despite enhancements in fuel efficiency, aircraft are projected to consume 59% more fuel by 2050 than in 2019, resulting in significant CO2 emissions. The sector’s reliance on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), such as biofuels and e-fuels, may not adequately offset these emissions due to rapid growth. Even with the EU’s Green Fuels Law mandating a 35% e-fuel blend by 2050, the aviation industry’s energy demand could exceed that of Germany’s total electricity usage in 2023.
T&E emphasizes the need for urgent policy changes, including constraints on airport growth and corporate travel, to align the sector with Europe’s climate goals. Despite potential emissions reduction targets set by the European Commission, there are currently no concrete plans to curtail aviation growth, which could result in an additional 960 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2050 if current growth projections hold true. T&E advocates for immediate legislative measures to address these challenges and ensure that aviation contributes to Europe’s climate objectives.
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