The article discusses the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil transport, and recent findings from Citorini Research. Instead of relying solely on satellite images and statements about potential shutdowns, the firm sent analysts to observe shipping activity directly, particularly as tensions rise between Iran and the U.S.
The analysts reported that, contrary to mainstream beliefs, shipping traffic through the strait is still occurring, with around 15 vessels passing daily, including 4-5 tankers. They noted that many ships have their tracking devices turned off, suggesting that the actual volume of ships may be higher than recorded. This selective passage is treated as a “functional checkpoint” by Iran rather than a complete blockade.
Citorini’s insights indicate a more nuanced situation than previously understood, with expectations of prolonged disruptions and a persistent risk premium in the oil market. The company anticipates that shipping traffic may return to about 50% of pre-conflict levels within a few weeks.
In essence, while the situation remains complex and potentially evolving, the findings challenge the prevailing narrative of an effectively closed critical shipping route.
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