The British Met Office has forecasted that 2026 will likely be the second-warmest year on record, with temperatures expected to average around 1.46 degrees Celsius, behind 2024 but potentially surpassing 2023 and 2025. James Hansen’s estimates align closely, predicting a temperature of about 1.47°C for 2026.
Hansen also suggests that if an El Niño event occurs late in 2026, temperatures could peak at 1.7 degrees Celsius in 2027. Predictions utilize historical data and climate models, factoring in El Niño and La Niña conditions. A mild La Niña is anticipated early in 2026, moderating temperatures, while future predictions indicate a rising warming rate, estimated at 0.27°C per decade.
There are uncertainties in longer-term predictions—especially concerning high-variability events like El Niño, which contribute to a significant margin of error. Overall, while the predictions show a warming trend, the exact figures for subsequent years remain complex and subject to change due to climatic variations.
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