The anticipated Russian retaliation against Ukraine following a drone attack on its bomber fleet has so far been limited. A Western diplomat had hoped for a severe response, but expert Michael Coffman noted that Russia’s options may be constrained due to its existing military commitments in Ukraine. Reports indicate that the Ukrainian attack, known as Operation SpiderWeb, damaged about 10% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, notably affecting TU-95 and TU-22 bombers, but Russia remains capable of launching other strikes.
German military assessments suggest that, despite these losses, Russia continues to carry out attacks on Ukraine, with 90% of its strategic bombers remaining operational. A recent attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine resulted in one civilian death and damage to infrastructure. Concurrently, Ukrainian drone strikes caused temporary closures at two major Moscow airports, and damages in nearby regions.
Both nations are also involved in a dispute over a recently agreed-upon prisoner exchange, with each side accusing the other of obstructing the process. Russia claims to have provided a list of prisoners to be exchanged, while Ukraine disputes the legitimacy of this list and the timing proposed for repatriation.
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