Western officials and military analysts believe that heavy Russian losses will hinder any major new offensive in Ukraine as the war enters its fifth year, according to Bloomberg. Russia’s battlefield casualties have surpassed its monthly recruitment of 30,000 to 35,000 contract soldiers for three consecutive months, indicating a need for mobilization since fall 2022.
British Armed Forces Minister Al-Khans warned that economic instability could arise in Russia, especially with rising casualties. The Kremlin may have to increase recruitment from urban areas, risking political support erosion in these densely populated regions.
Analysis by BBC’s Russian Broadcasting Corporation and exiled Mediazona highlighted significant regional disparities in soldier casualties, with economically disadvantaged areas suffering much higher death rates than Moscow.
Additionally, Moscow is increasingly depending on foreign recruits, with about 17,000 North Korean troops reportedly sent to support its efforts. Recruitment from countries like India, Pakistan, and Nigeria has faced backlash, with claims that recruits were misled about their military contracts.
Despite setbacks, experts note that Russia remains a significant threat. The military also faces logistical challenges due to issues with weapon supply and communications, complicating any operational strategies. Negotiations for a peace deal have stalled amidst ongoing conflict.
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