A new study reveals that as global temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius, the number of people experiencing extreme heat will more than double by 2050, increasing from 1.54 billion to 3.79 billion. This significant rise will impact regions worldwide, especially tropical and southern areas, while northern countries, which are typically designed for colder climates, will also struggle with adaptation.
Published in Sustainability, the paper assesses how global warming has increased from pre-industrial levels to 1.5°C in the past decade and projects further temperature rises. The study highlights a shift in energy demands: heating costs in the Northern Hemisphere will decline, whereas cooling costs in the Southern Hemisphere will surge, forecasting that global energy demand for air conditioning will outpace that for heating by century’s end.
Using temperature data defined by deviations from 18 degrees Celsius, researchers identified locales most vulnerable to extreme heat. The most affected countries include India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines, with significant temperature spikes predicted for the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil.
Interestingly, the study found that extreme temperatures will initially rise sharply at around 1.5°C, underscoring the urgency of adaptation across healthcare, economics, and energy sectors. Co-author Radhika Khosla from Oxford University emphasized the need for early adaptation and mitigation efforts to avoid unprecedented impacts on education, health, migration, and agriculture.
Even wealthier northern nations like the UK will face challenges due to outdated infrastructure designed for cold weather, highlighting that no region is immune to extreme heat. In 2023, unusual heat in the UK led to coal power being used to meet increased air conditioning demand, illustrating the urgent need for improvements in energy systems and building designs to cope with rising temperatures.
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