During COP30 negotiations in Brazil, the ongoing debate about the inevitability of rising emissions due to growth surfaced once again. Developing countries have historically set modest climate targets, justifying higher emissions, while developed nations have emitted significantly more as they pursue economic prosperity, often at an environmental cost. Despite global GDP per capita hitting a high in 2024, carbon emissions also rose, prompting growing skepticism about continuous growth as a viable path.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the need to “move beyond GDP,” highlighting a shift towards “post-growth” economic frameworks, such as “doughnut economics” and welfare budgeting, which account for environmental damage. While economists debate the necessity of degrowth—deliberate economic contraction—advocates argue for essential changes to avert ecological collapse.
Controversially, the concept of “green growth” suggests that economies can expand sustainably. Proponents point to countries like the UK and Germany, which have increased GDP while lowering emissions. Critics, however, argue this focus is misguided, as it overlooks the accumulated CO2 levels driving climate change.
Research on “planetary boundaries” shows that environmental limits are being breached, with the latest findings indicating that seven out of nine boundaries are in danger. A study comparing over 150 countries found that no nation simultaneously meets its population’s needs while respecting these boundaries.
Economists now broadly fall into three camps: Green Keynesians advocating for a state-led green transition; green capitalists pushing for market reforms and technology; and post-growth advocates who emphasize reducing economic size to protect ecosystems.
The degrowth movement calls for significant reductions in production and consumption, suggesting policies like a four-day workweek. On the other hand, some post-growth economists encourage shifting focus from growth to alternative measures of prosperity. As international climate agreements emphasize urgent carbon emission reductions, the path forward remains uncertain, posing a critical challenge to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability.
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