Meteorological agencies and climate scientists are warning of a potential El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean later this year, which could drive global temperatures to record highs in 2027. The U.S. NOAA and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate that while some climate models predict El Niño, uncertainty surrounds these predictions. Experts note early signs in sea surface temperatures suggesting El Niño might develop in 2026.
El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is linked to extreme weather globally, often leading to increased global temperatures and hotter, drier conditions in places like Australia. The Australian Secretariat recently stated that some models forecast an El Niño event starting in June but cautioned against overestimating prediction timelines.
Dr. Andrew Watkins from Monash University mentions that warm water accumulating in the western tropical Pacific could shift eastward if trade winds weaken. He indicates that models suggest El Niño could develop in the Australian autumn. Associate Professor Andrea Tachet added that the current La Niña is ending, making future predictions uncertain, with a roughly equal chance of El Niño or neutral conditions between June and August.
Dr. Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth Research estimates that if El Niño occurs later this year, it will likely raise global temperatures by about 0.12 degrees Celsius in 2024, peaking around November to January and primarily affecting temperatures in 2027. Both Watkins and Hausfather agree that even without a strong El Niño, global warming accelerated by fossil fuel burning is causing temperature increases, making record highs more likely.
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