A recent article in the CNBC Sports Newsletter highlights the surge in prediction market trading, attributing part of the growth to 18- to 20-year-olds, who are typically ineligible to gamble legally in many states. Analysis from HoldCrunch indicates that the prediction platform Kalshi experiences more trading in college football than in the NFL or NBA, suggesting a notable trend among younger users.
As traditional online sports betting remains restricted to those over 21 in several states, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have capitalized on this gap by allowing participants aged 18 and above. For the week ending January 4, college football accounted for 32% of Kalshi’s total handle, while the NFL and NBA followed with 24% and 22%, respectively.
NCAA President Charlie Baker has called for regulatory safeguards by requesting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to exclude college sports from prediction markets until better protections are in place. Data from Juice Reel shows that prediction market usage is notably high in states without legal sports betting, with California leading at 9% of its users connected to prediction accounts.
Interestingly, New York, where online sports betting is legal, ranks second in prediction account connections, potentially due to its concentration of financial traders familiar with derivatives trading. Experts suggest that younger users may drive this interest in prediction markets, particularly in high-tax environments like New York, where alternatives to regulated sportsbooks gain traction.
Overall, trust analysts observe that these markets could benefit skilled bettors, allowing for larger stakes than often permitted at regular sportsbooks. The growing popularity of prediction markets seems to reflect changing betting behaviors among various demographics.
Source link
