The UK must prepare for at least 2°C of warming within the next 25 years, according to its top climate adviser, the Independent Climate Change Commission (CCC). This warning is more severe than previous recommendations and signifies a departure from the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C as outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The CCC states that with the global average temperature nearing 1.4°C, the likelihood of maintaining the 1.5°C limit has diminished. In a recent letter, the commission urged ministers to prepare for extreme weather expected from a 2°C increase by 2050, highlighting the country’s current unpreparedness for such climate impacts.
Already affected by drought, floods, and extreme heat, the UK is seeing significant consequences with the recent record heat and poor harvests. The CCC warns that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C will lead to more drastic impacts, such as doubling the number of people at risk of flooding and exponentially increasing bushfire risks.
Efforts to build resilient infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants and housing, must aim to withstand potential scenarios of up to 4°C warming, even if that outcome is considered unlikely. The CCC maintains that while achieving the 1.5°C target is still a long-term goal, planning for 2°C is essential for managing risks.
World leaders are set to discuss adaptation strategies at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November. Experts emphasize the urgent need to reduce emissions while simultaneously preparing for the climate changes already underway.
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