A recent thought experiment by Earth and atmospheric scientists suggests that the impacts of human activities on climate could have been detected as early as 1885, with the right modern tools. By that time, emissions from burning fossil fuels were already beginning to alter the atmosphere. The study proposes that if scientists had access to advanced measurement techniques in 1860, they would have found evidence of human-driven climate change, specifically stratospheric cooling due to greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion.
The researchers indicate that the properties of carbon dioxide were recognized in the mid-1800s, and its increase correlates with industrial activities from the European Industrial Revolution. Their analysis suggests that while greenhouse gases contribute to warming in the troposphere, they cause cooling in the stratosphere, complicating the detection of long-term climate trends from ground-level data.
The study emphasizes that a pronounced cooling effect in the stratosphere could have been identified by 1885, even with limited monitoring capabilities. It calls attention to humanity’s ongoing struggle to reduce fossil fuel dependence and mitigate climate change. The authors warn that humanity is at a critical juncture regarding climate intervention, and the choices made now will significantly impact future conditions. This research is published in PNAS.
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